Thursday, December 24, 2009
Is the Greenback coming back?
Well, below are my opinions.
1. November & December Forex market normally not reflect the "real movement" of the market. This is due to many big boys taking rest and unwinding their position for the year end closing.
2. As mentioned early in my articles, Financial Media Mogul is controlled by big boys. Beware when all the news support USD suddenly coming out to create fear in the market. Recently, Dubai and Europe Banks has been targeted by this group.
3. No doubt, in fundamental point of views; US is showing some improving with the perception ahead at least 6 months from now. The treasury yield curve suddenly steepen and now people will use it to compare EUR/USD. No more Dow Jones. Ha....you know what is called financial world now!
4.By the way, I am not in the mood to make any move. I will hedge my position especially EUR/USD. Technically, down trend has been formed.
5.The real party will start again after 5 January 2010.
Merry Christmas & Happy New Year 2010 to all my readers!
Wednesday, December 9, 2009
December: Holiday for most of the Forex 'Big Boys'.
Everyone need a rest. During this month, the market volume is thin and it is good for small players to make money. I will keep my spread big so the position won't easily closed up. Big Boys will come back after the New Year with the huge volume and easily move the market. Anyway, if you are a player with small capital, chances for you to make money is to catch up the next big move.
As for me, I would like to see what will happen in the next 6 months since my positions is based on hedging and looking for market move in the range or trend. Sometimes, if market go against me, I will cut big losses which most of the amateur players scare of. My philosophy in Forex Market is "As long as you make money over the time as defined, you are the winner." The return is definitely much better then you park your money in the bank or put in to some lousy 'mutual fund'.
December is a month for every one to recharge their battery and spend more time with family even you are in the most vicious financial market.
Friday, November 13, 2009
How to trade Forex market while having vacation.
While travelling, I won't miss out trading Forex Market. In fact, I find more relaxing and make more money while travelling by using swing and hedge methods. Well, I will bring along my iphone to view market information if I need to. My laptop is used for execute trade. Basically I trade FX based on TA, I already set out a plan for the whole weeks for the entry and exit points. The good part about this methods is you set your mind free from all the 'noise'.. Anyway, it also have the negative side if the market drastically change which you may lose a winning position.
Based on my past experience, I tend to make more money while travelling which prove my trading style is more stick to swing strategy. One of the problem I face while travelling is finding high speed internet connection. To encounter the problem, I have to make sure all the hotels I stay come with high speed internet connection. I plan to buy a local sim card for internet connection which they called " Pay As You Go" a.k.a "Prepaid" in Malaysia.I hope this "Amazing Race" trip will bring a fruitful result for my FX account.
Sunday, November 8, 2009
Don't trust Financial Media.
I never say the financial media are lying, but I urge you don't trust them by the time news are being released out. It broadcasts the late news which is too late for you to make the move in the market. Sometimes if you are lucky, you can make some money as the news released. During this time, the big boys will take profit as much as possible. Once they finished, either they will push up or pull down the market, it depends on the situation. They will use news to attract victims come in once they already make the big move, they will slwoly help to push up/pull down to prove their views.
When big boys crash with big boys, the market will be very volatile within a range. If you have time to monitor it 24 hours. This is the best time to make money by applying 'scapling' methods. Big boys can move the market if the market is less volatile too. I personally experienced it 2 weeks ago and saw the big movement of EUR/USD within 4 hours. It normally happened when they have are obliged to FX Options.(A derivative that predicted by real guru that will cause another financial meltdown.)
In the end of the day, if you don't have source to get the real breaking news, please switch off your TV if you want to trade FX for long.
Wednesday, November 4, 2009
Fundamental=Fun-d-mental
Back to fundamental, USD Index is rebound, all kind of news is giving an impression USD is coming back. Some predict it is just a short term consolidation and USD still remain weak.
Market is all about participants perception, no doubt economic of each country is the most important element that determine the perception. Interest Rate, GDP, Consumer confidence, Trade deficit, Employment Rate...you name it.... All this will create perception for the fundamentalist to make their move in FX market. The so-called self-reinforcing process will create trend up, down, up again...down again and the pattern will continue. It range from 1 minute to more than 1 decade long if you look at the chart.
Back to the topic again, US economic no doubt is improving even a lot of noise to distract novice investors. Most of the indicators are showing sign of recovery. Is the recovery bring back the strong dollar? You will be surprised to see stock market is going up, USD is heading south. Why? the so called "risk aversion" and "risk appetite" explain it all.
Ok, I don't like fundamental a lot but start looking at it since the account is getting bigger and long term trading is in my mind. Fun-d-mental=Making your mental think funny..
I take a pair for your review. I like this pair a lot since it is easy to understand; USD/JPY. Let look at Japan , it is an export based economy. What is the implication of stronger yen to Japan economy? Bad..very bad. The strong yen will make the export more expensive. It will destroyed the corporate earning if yen become stronger and this will affect the overall economy. Furthermore, BOJ maintain almost 0% interest rate. Does this encourage the carry trade? Yes, but the other way round. Big Boys will borrow yen and invest in high yield currency such as Aussie. This explains why the AUD went up for the last 6-9 months. Okay, I guess this simple explanation will give you a clue when to buy or sell yen. Of course there are other elements invovled.
In the end of the day, if you are a long term speculator in FX, fundamental is a very important element for you to understand beside TA.
Friday, October 30, 2009
When the Market Go Agianst You...
I heard many participants cannot survive more then 2 years, 2 months and even 2 weeks. You will feel comfortable and confidence once you make money. We are human with emotion attached on it. How about when u start losing money? Our emotions will turn opposite and our brain start malfunction. Even experience traders who survive long enough in the market will experience this kind of feeling.
When the market go against me, how do I face it? I have a philosophy when I accept clients and always ask what level of risk they are willing to take. Most of them will leave it to me, I judge their risk based on different type of variables. Anyway, let get back to the topic. Most of the time, I will take a break and hedge the position until I feel comfortable to trade again. I will go out for a drink with my friends and have a cup of coffee or green tea. (Starbucks will be my first choice)
Just to share with you, the last 2 days was a terrible trading days when the big boys start taking profit. It shook the USD/JPY and EUR/USD without any sign of fundamental and TA. The market hit few strong supports. In the end of the day, I call up my buddy and have a chit chat and meet up with some investors and prospects. At the time of writing, the market recover nearly 60-70%.
Even you are the best trader, sometimes you cannot predict accurately when the market will move against you. The only way to avoid it is by applying hedging (for me) and cut losses for certain traders. Both will minimize loses and stabilize your emotions. Trust me, when emotion get rid of reality of your brain, You are finished. Always remember, trading FX is not only science but it is an art too. "What Is Scientifically Optimal Is Psychologically Impossible” -Read my previous articles. http://msfx.blogspot.com/2009/06/is-trading-forex-art-or-science.html
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Dance with the Market.
To become a successful trader, you need to find the right time frame that suit you. I spend most of my time in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Occasionally I travel around the world. I normally following the Tokyo-London-New York session which is from GMT 0000-GMT 1200. Yes, during this hours, the forex market is like a wild party, the pairs (music) jumping up and down. If you are an amateur trader and cannot catch up the tune during this session, chances for you to lose money is huge.
Forex is a very unique party and full of different participants with all kind of perception. Some participants dance a for 5 minutes and leave the party. Some participants tend to following the music whole sessions. While the big boys stand on the stage become the deejay.
Some readers still ask me who are the big boys? Let me explain again, they are institutional players, banks, hedge fund managers and people who can influence the market. Most of them will set up the strategy to earn money as much and quick as possible. They have good friends (politicians and policy makers) and information tend to flow to them before it release out to the market. They tend to play different type of music to attract participants to the dancing floor and will stop it once they think the time is right. They will provide all type of liquid and create the illusion to the participants. Emotion will run wild once you see the illusion. To beat them, impossible! The only way to make money in the market, is to join them, listen what type of music they are going to play and dance with the market!
*I am writing this article at Starbucks cafe, (a place to prevent me from fall into sleep while watching people dancing on the floor).
Thursday, October 22, 2009
Trading Forex In Different Enviroment
Most of the time, I execute my trade at my SOHO with 2 laptops on my table. If I have 8 hours in front of screen during London-New York session, I will trade aggressively by applying the so called "scalping" method. It is like playing computer games, chances to make money is there but you need programming your brain well. It is a very tiring too. Emotion sometimes can overtake reality.
While I am travelling, I will monitor the market once or twice a day. I will preset the entry and exit points. Of course this type of trade may go or against you. By applying hedging methods, I tend to like this type of trade. For the last 2 weeks, I was at Kuantan, Malaysia and Bali, Indonesia. I made good money.
Lastly, I do some trading at cafe while have meeting with my business partners. Frankly, it is hard to trade in this environment since the you need concentration if you applying scalping. It is too long for you to see the results if you go for swing method.
In the end of the day, if you want to trade forex effectively, you need to prepare your trading skill in different environment unless you like PC so much and willing to stick in front of the screen 24/7. No body like that, I think.
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
The confession of a Forex trader.
To make money in Forex, I apply K.I.S.S concept. "Keep in simple and silly". There are few types of traders which the system they use conflict each other, every systems is applicable in different environments.
To spot opportunities in Forex market, I also very emphasis on technical analysis but only use 1-2 indicators. Too many indicators will make your brain malfunction and thinking too much. I always ask my clients what level of risk they are willing to take. If they have small account only, I will using a very 'conservative' method to accumulate the fund. The negative side of the method is you will miss a 'big win'. The positive site is the account will grow slowly.
For a clients with big fund, I tend to use 2 accounts to leverage each other. One for a higher return and the second one for a 'steady and smaller' return. Do I make mistakes? Yes, I make mistakes, no trader is perfect. Once I make major mistakes, I will stop trading for a while.
I like to use time frame to leverage my accounts once mistakes are made. It may works for or against me. If I notice it against me, I will cut loses. Most of my prospects surprise to see big loses I cut. In the end of the day, I will tell them "Judge me in every 3 months, not every 3 weeks, 3 days, 3 hours, 3 minutes or *3 seconds.
*If opportunities come, 3 seconds can make money for you in FX market, this type of players called "Big Momentum" speculators. It always works on the first Friday of each month, 830am EST.
Monday, October 12, 2009
Entry and Exit Points
Some of my prospects asked me how to make money in Forex market, they want fast money and huge return. I told them that I am not a machine which can calculate the exact entry and exit points.
To make fast money and huge return, machine is computerized to create fear and greed to attract the victims.If you are a novice trader, you will be experiencing what I explain below.
Let me give you a scenario, you think EUR/USD will go up and buy EUR and target certain profit. Once the market start going up before reaching your exit point, your emotion start playing. You either want to enter more trade or take profit. The first explain greed and the second explain fear in you. Once you enter another trade, the market may work against or for you.
To estimate accurately the entry and exit point is almost impossible. There are always two forces pushing each other to drive the price up and down. If you at the wrong side of the forces, you will be making losses.
There are many types of traders; scalped, swing, momentum, long term traders. The big boys will use all types of methods to affect trader psychology. If you want fast and huge profits, I strongly suggest you don't trade forex, as it may turn out fast and huge losses.
*For forex market, Fast=1 day to 1 month. Huge=10% per week to 100% per month.
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
When Fundamental Collide with Technical Analysis
Let me go back to the events. Ausie long term trend is up backed up by strong economy recovery and demand of commodities. Every one will buy AUD/USD. Let say you buy AUD/USD before it pull back and push up again, you will burn your finger with limited fund. AUD/USD pull back 2000 pips created artificially by Big Boys to adsorb more AUD before it shoot up again. Once the announcement that Australia raise interest rate which has been never be predicted. Big Boys laugh all the way, it shoot up nearly 3000 pips.
Financial world is a cruel world, the rich getting richer no matter the economy slump or boom. Those with limited capital need to be extremely careful when they step in the jungle to find the treasure. The wild animals are always waiting their victims!
Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Profit Vs Consistency in FX Market.
Saturday, September 26, 2009
Do you need good friends in FX market?
Read the title carefully. Do you need good friends in FX market? Yes! Definitely yes! But sadly, only when you are big enough, you have the chance to approach the "FX good friends".Who are them? Ok, let me make a list here.
1. Uncle Ben 2. Mr. Mervyn King 3.Mr Jean-Claude Trichet. 4.Masaaki Shirakawa Son. If you look at Forex market, it is like a Mafia Games. Those who ignore the rules and gangs, will be eliminated. Media is the good friend of this group. They use it as a channel to attract the 'victims' and 'kill' them easily.
Still not believe? Ok, let me show you some information to prove my views. Before cable drop 4 cents yesterday, everything publish in the financial media is positive about UK economy recovery. Mr. King personally addressed these issues. The amateur players bought GBP/USD as much as possible. Big boys with good friends sell the GBP quietly via their black boxes. Once they finish selling, the pound dropped the most since April versus the dollar yesterday and traded at its lowest in more than five months against the euro after Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said the currency’s weakness was “very helpful” to the U.K. economy.
Do I trade based on news? I think most of the successful traders which do not have the good friends above will switch off Bloomberg or CNBC from Monday to Friday. I read financial news during the weekend while I am enjoying my Caffe Mocha at Starbucks. From Monday to Friday, if I switch on TV, I will watch History, Discovery Channel and National Geography.
Friday, September 18, 2009
Forex: The Emotion Game.
Currency market / FX is a gold mine for those who know the game well. As you are growing bigger, the chances for you to play long term strategy is increasing. The power is in your hand once you have bigger capital. The opportunity is always waiting for you to make money. Some of my friend want me to shares the secret of making money in FX. I gently reply them " If you have USD500K in the bank, I advise you take out USD100K for Forex and I will guarantee make money for you in less than 1 year." Most of them open the eyes and look at me. I smile back to them and reply "I know what you are thinking, let me explain how....", I continue "Are you looking for 3% per month, 5% per month or 100% in 3 months? (which is my best record...). Their eyes open bigger.
I show them the chart and start explain one of the methods I use. I also let them know the rules of thumbs in any investment, the higher the return, it come with higher risk. After my explanation, they agree with me but ask me why so many people lose money in Forex. I answer: "Simple, forex market is a game of emotion!" If you take out your emotion, you can clearly look at the big picture.
Anyway, Forex is not the game for those who are too greedy and treat it like casino. I also advise my clients don't open the trading account every week even I give permission them to do that. The more you look at your account, the more it will affect your emotion. Believe it or not, power of attraction is another element affectimg trader psychology. I also set rules for them to follow or else I won't accept them as my clients.
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
Cash is King! Forex Market is the Kingdom of Cash!
Now, everything I do is to generate CASH, I believe Cash Is King and Forex Market is the Kingdom full of Cash! Trillion of dollars is translated in the Forex market each day.
In business, no matter in the good or bad time, you need cash. In the good time, if you have cash you can generate more cash. In the bad time, you need more cash to sustain your business and if you have extra cash, you have the strongest bargaining power. Tycoons with cash in hand always like to use this phrase in their dealing."Take it or Leave it".
If Cash is King, where is the kingdom of cash? For me, the kingdom of cash is Forex Market, when you step in Forex Market, you are meeting millions of participants. All of them come into the kingdom for one purpose; to make more cash! Sadly, 90% of them come out of the Kingdom lose their cash. 10% of them stay in the Kingdom for a long period of time and hoping more participants will come in. Of course, more and more participants will come in each day to try thier luck. 10% of the participants will be smiling to welcome 90% of participants. We know the dinner is ready.
Tuesday, September 1, 2009
Create Passive Income with Forex Investment.
Let go back to Forex games. I mentioned earlier that Forex Leverage is a double edged sword which either can 'kill' you or you can use it to 'kill' other participants. Bare on mind, Forex is a Zero sum games, which mean if someone win, other site someone will lose.
Why I can use trading Forex as my passive income. Firstly, I know the basic rules of this game. Then, I apply hedging in my trading strategy. Rules and strategies are totally two different variable. Without knowing basic rules, you will 'die' in the games. After knowing the basic rules, you must have your own strategies, different participants have their own styles in trading Forex. I prefer 'relaxing' style by applying 'hedge' in my positions. Did I make loses in my positions? Yes, of course I did. When you view my track records, some even shock when they see I cut big losses. But when they see the bottom line over a period of 3 months, they feel comfortable to place their money with me.
Can Forex create passive income for you? Yes, as long as you know the how to play the game, every investment tools can create passive income. The magic of the Forex game is you can get a 'big bonus' if the opportunties come. You must focus and stay calm when the opportunities come. It will appear at least 3-4 times per month if you follow the FX market closely.
Friday, August 28, 2009
Why I still prefer hedging...
When you trade Forex Market, you must feel comfortable after you place your trade. Once you start to feel worry, your portfolio will start to screw up. You will be making mistake again and again. Few major mistakes will make you feel uneasy and your brain start to malfunction. I advise you to stop immediately and take a rest at least for a day.
Well, I feel very comfortable when I hedge my position, I don't have to worry where the market is heading. I can go out and have a cup of Cappuccino at Starbucks and chat with my business partners on other deals. I don't have to stare at the monitor for the whole day. I only check my position once or twice a day. If I go for vacation, I can hedge it for a longer term or just close all my positions. The most beatiful things is; the return is much higher if compare to I sit infront of the screen. That is my style of trading. Who say you cannot sleep well if you trade Forex?
Monday, August 24, 2009
Forex Party
I don't want to touch on stock market since my blog is focus on Forex Market. In Forex market, you are not worry when the music will stop in the party. The opportunities to join the party (make money) is always open as long as you follow the right music. However, most of the FX participants stop at the middle of the party by choosing the wrong music. Based on my experiment in Forex Lab in my last article, I follow all type of music and try it out. If you want to continue to join the party, you need to follow the tune of the music. If you dance wild while the party is playing sentimental music, you are out. If you dance slow while the music is wild, you are out too. If you are a successful FX trader and have been surviving the party for more than 3 years, you know what I mean.
Yesterday, I read part of the Market Wizard which focus on the FX trader. Surprisingly, I discover if you are really big (I mean you have hundred billions dollar to join Forex Party). You can be the deejay of the party.
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
Forex Leverage: A Double-Edged Sword
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
Experiment In "Forex" Lab.
Monday, July 27, 2009
Speculation is Business not Gambling
Thursday, July 23, 2009
Which pair you choose?
Thursday, July 16, 2009
"In China We Trust"?
Wednesday, July 8, 2009
Is "Luck" playing the role in trading Currency Market?
Many people who go in the FX with as little as USD5000, and thinking to make million out of it. This is totally a wrong concept, it is better you go to the lottery shop and spend your money there. I should turn that statement around, if you have US1 million, you can easily make USD5000 out of it. Sound too little, then you won't survive long in FX market.
Let me share my views with you. If you don't like it, please give me constructive views and not try to promote your stuff here.
Beside all the basic rules which you can easily find on the Internet, trading successfully in FX is based on the personal style.
There are so-called scarp traders can do very well in their trading and make millions per year. This group have at least 2-3 screens in front of them and treat FX like a printing money machine, they act like "money changer" which you notice in the hypermarket. Sell and Buy in the split second.
The second group is so-called "swing trader". They will wait patiently and enter the trade when the opportunity comes. It is not easy to be in this group too. "The more you trade, the more you fail" is applied in this group which is totally opposite compare to the scarp trader.
The third group views trading currency as long term investment and apply "fundamental" analysis 90-100%. The long term investor will buy/sell and hold. If you want to be in this group, please make sure you do your margin calculation carefully. If the market is in your favor, you can make a lot by looking at your screen less the 3-4 times per month. It may go the other way as well.
The final group which I call it the "Ultimate Trader", simple...it combined all the 3 groups above.
When you have big fund and combined with all the basic rules, you can join this group. Can you find the Holy Grail in FX? Nope, I don't think so...
Sunday, July 5, 2009
Do Not Fall In Love with the Forex Market... Don't hate it too, the market is always RIGHT!
Saturday, July 4, 2009
95:05 (Warning: FOREX Market is not for everyone)
Monday, June 29, 2009
Is the US Dollar under threat?
Monday, June 22, 2009
FOREX: Long Term or Short Term?
Thursday, June 18, 2009
When "Big Boys" rules the game...
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
When Machine "Crash" with Human....
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
Forex Market Vs Stock Market
Sunday, June 14, 2009
Is Trading Forex an “Art” or “Science”?
Science is knowledge that developed and proven through experiment. Art is something abstract and as contrasted with scientific or technical subjects. Generally; Art=Psychology of Trading and Science=Technical Analysis. Once you view the chart (which most of the traders do), you need to know both aspects. Science will affect Art and vice verse. Both elements will always drive the price movement and once the expectation changes, so do the price direction. Smart speculators will always find the loophole of the financial system and use “Art” or “noise” to affect the price movement and novice investors emotion. They are the front liners; in every level, they will buy low (or sell high) while novice investors will always buy high (or sell low). But you will ask, “how low is low?” and “how high is high?”.The answer is “how much risk you willing to take and how deep is your pocket?” I would suggest you must have substantial capital stand by if you plan to invest in FOREX and always remember the basic rules of the games. I end this article with a quote:- “What Is Scientifically Optimal Is Psychologically Impossible”.