Wednesday, October 7, 2009

When Fundamental Collide with Technical Analysis

In FX market, generally there are 2 types of traders; Fundamentalist and Chartists . To make money in FX, you can either be one of these or both. It all depends how much capital is in your hand. Keynes is right about human behavior, we have limited resources but want to maximize our return. This create a character conflict between fundamental and technical analysis(TA).

Most of the experienced large capital traders tend to trade based on both aspects to hedge each down fall. Both can generate profit if it has been implemented by following the right systems. Basically if you are a 'small boy' and not 'big boy', most of the time you trade based on TA. Big boys have the sources to get the first hand news and drive the market in split second.

To content with my views, I can show you some events recently cause the dollars sliding down heavily against other currencies. I know most of the readers heard about "the doom day of USD" in the news, and closed the eyes sell USD against other currencies. When you have limited fund, every single pip mean a lot. If you enter the wrong trade and sell USD, you will burn your fingers.

Let me go back to the events. Ausie long term trend is up backed up by strong economy recovery and demand of commodities. Every one will buy AUD/USD. Let say you buy AUD/USD before it pull back and push up again, you will burn your finger with limited fund. AUD/USD pull back 2000 pips created artificially by Big Boys to adsorb more AUD before it shoot up again. Once the announcement that Australia raise interest rate which has been never be predicted. Big Boys laugh all the way, it shoot up nearly 3000 pips.

Financial world is a cruel world, the rich getting richer no matter the economy slump or boom. Those with limited capital need to be extremely careful when they step in the jungle to find the treasure. The wild animals are always waiting their victims!
 
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