Now (Tuesday 330pm EST), the market is waiting for the decisions of Fed on the sign of US interest rate which will be announced tomorrow; Wednesday 215pm EST. All the events stated above consider the crucial elements that move the forex market. Anyway, expectation always collide with reality. In fact expectation shows the "real" market movement which is being controlled by the participants' psychology. The final truth might drive the market in both way or remain sideways(which is unlikely in this volatile market).
To create hypothesis in this vicious market, it is almost impossible. The only way to beat the market is stick to the strong guidelines. As mentioned in my early articles, those who wish to find the Holy Grail in Forex market will dig the grave with their own teeth.