Amateur Vs Professional Investors

Last night during one of our casual meeting, I was asked by one of the amateur Forex Player where would the Euro heading to? My answer to him.." Goldman Sachs (GS) said it will reach 1.35 but they have revised it twice the projection since early this year. If I tell you it will reach 1.35 but Mr. Market turn other way round, you will curse me. if I am right, you may not remember me."
Professional traders will never ever ask this kind of questions. Regardless where the market move, we look for right time to strike. One of my team mate always related trading forex to sports. I agree his point of views." Lin Dan is a world class badminton player, he know when is the time to smash, drop short, long ball etc in the tournament, but sometimes he make mistakes too." This apply to all the sportsmen. Trading Forex apply the same concept, even you are the best trader, once a while market will not syn with your mind.
Many amateur players think they learn some technical analysis skills and try to play professionally. My advise to them." If you think trading is so easy, anyone can become millionaires by reading this type of books. Ironically, most legendary traders like Mr. Soros and Jim Rogers don't even know how to read chart but they can 'create' the future chart pattern. I hope all the amateur players get my points here.

A Flaw Market.

If you are a Forex Trader and rely on economic news, you will find the whole market is a flaw deception. Some gurus and data will tell you certain currency will go up or down, the data really make sense for you to follow their thoughts.
Once you are confirmed the so called fundamental point of views. You enter the trade and the market start go against you. Huh? Sound familiar for those who follow the fundamental.
I agree with one of the gurus view that currency basically is a flaw deception. Trader and Speculators who are experienced would not follow the news instead have their own thoughts. In many ways, Forex trade 24 hours and almost 7 days, millions of participants with different motives buy and sell the pairs of currency. Some of them are pure model fund, other may be speculation or for hedging purpose. The so called intrinsic value of the currency always depend on the political and economic situation. When Europe hit by sovereign debts, people start selling Euro and buy USD. Once consider as save haven of currency players is no more safe when the news start pop out the double dips possibility in US. The different perception created by big boys will change the market sentiment and the direction of the currency.
I strongly agree the points of view below;
Bloomberg 27 July 2010:
“Foreign exchange is the world’s biggest fruit and vegetable store, with millions of people playing it 24 hours a day,” Goldman Sachs Chief Global Economist Jim O’Neill said on July 21 in a radio interview with Tom Keene on Bloomberg Surveillance. “Anybody who thinks they can get foreign exchange right all the time should be in a lunatic asylum.”